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When it comes to the global economy, few things matter as much as China, the trajectory of its economy and especially the pace and impulse of its credit creation, which is ironic because virtually all data coming out of China is fabricated and manipulated, and thoroughly untrustworthy, either on purpose or “by accident.” The latest […]
European stocks are steady in post-Christmas trading if struggling for traction after a mixed session in Asia, amid trading thinned by a holiday-shortened week and ongoing worries about the tech sector; however a strong rally in commodities – including copper and oil – buoyed expectations for a strong 2018 and helped offset concerns over the […]
Despite a Wednesday dive in high-flying U.S. tech stocks on worries their boom may have peaked following a MS downgrade, which presured Asian stocks leading to a slide in Hong Kong and South Korean share, on Thursday morning the dip buyers have emerged and both European stocks and US equity futures are once again solidly […]
While many, and certainly the FOMC, tends to gloss over the periodic Beige Book report, it does provide a snapshot of the US economy, if not in quantiative terms, then in qualitative anecdotes, some of which can be rather amusing at times. First, here are the big picture economic assessments of the Nov. 29 Beige […]
US equity futures continued their push higher overnight (ES +0.1%), and the VIX is 1.5% lower and back under 10, after yesterday’s blistering surge in US stocks which jumped 1%, the most since Sept. 11, following Powell’s deregulation promise, ahead of today’s 2nd estimate of U.S. Q3 GDP which is expected to be revised up. […]
It’s a busy week as traders return from the long Thanksgiving holiday, with inflation releases in the Eurozone and Japan. We’ll also get the second estimate of US GDP, housing data and ISM manufacturing, UK monetary aggregates and PMIs in China. Finally, the Russia-OPEC meeting takes place in Vienna on November 30, while the Senate […]
Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning, Leland Miller, a good friend of mine, is the founder and proprietor of an economic research service called the “China Beige Book.” The name “beige book” was borrowed from the surveys conducted by regional Federal Reserve banks of economic conditions in their regions. (In the days before […]
Last week, Goldman Sachs pointed out a very disturbing trend in the US labor market: where the participation rate for women in the prime age group of 25-54 have seen a dramatic rebound in the past 2 years, such a move has been completeloy missing when it comes to their peer male workers. As Goldman’s […]
Has the market’s “melt-up” levitation finally ended? Of course, it could be much worse: as Bloomberg’s Paul Jarvis recalls, thirty years ago on this day traders around the globe were staring at their screens in disbelief as stock markets turned to a sea of red: the Dow, S&P 500, FTSE, DAX and CAC fell -23%, […]
Has the market’s “melt-up” levitation finally ended? Of course, it could be much worse: as Bloomberg’s Paul Jarvis recalls, thirty years ago on this day traders around the globe were staring at their screens in disbelief as stock markets turned to a sea of red: the Dow, S&P 500, FTSE, DAX and CAC fell -23%, […]
World stocks stayed near peaks and currencies moved in tight ranges on Wednesday as China’s 19th Communist Party Congress opened while focus in Europe turned to speeches from top euro zone central bankers before next week’s key policy meeting, as well as Catalonia’s ultimatum due on Thursday. S&P futures are solidly in the green as […]
It's that time in the quarter again: 3Q earnings season begins this week with Wall Street consensus expecting S&P 500 EPS growth of just 5% (3% ex-Energy), a sharp drop from the last two quarters (Q1 was+14% and Q2 +11%). According to Goldman's Davis Kostin, "solid economic activity coupled with a weak USD will support […]
We’ve spent a lot of time of late discussing the impact of opioids on the American workforce. While it is unclear exactly how much of an impact opioids are having on the steadily declining labor force participation rate, one thing is clear: nearly half of working age men not in the labor force today take […]
S&P futures are flat, still spooked by the WSJ’s report that Gary Cohn will not be the next Fed chair, while both European stocks and Asian shares gain in a overnight session on edge in which everyone is looking forward to today’s main risk event: the ECB meeting and Draghi press conference due in under […]
Global risk sentiment remained gloomy coming into Wednesday, with global European and Asian stocks sliding on growing concerns about North Korea and political inaction in the US, another hurricane bearing down on the US and the American debt ceiling looming. Industrial metals dropped as the latest Chinese commodity bubble appears to have peaked. Shortly before […]