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More Bad News For Autos: Wells Fargo Car Loan Originations Crash To All Time Low

Joining the Q3 roster of banks that beat yet which all surprised investors with a cautionary red flag (for the other banks this involved a drop in FICC trading revenue and a sharp increase in loan loss reserves), moments ago Wells Fargo also reported better than expected Q3 EPS of $1.04 (exp. $1.03) which however […]


Storm-Impacted Retail Sales Disappoint Despite Biggest Spike Since March 2015

Following August's slump (worst since Jan '16), September's retail sales data was expected to surge 1.7% MoM (thanks in large part to the spike in auto sales) but it disappointed with a 1.6% spike (still the most since March 2015). U.S. retail sales jumped last month by the most in more than two years as […]


Looking For A Last Minute ‘Cheap’ Trade On A CPI Miss?

Demand has exploded for a cheap options bet which stands to benefit should the market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December tumble. As Bloomberg reports, the eurodollar call option involved expires Friday, so the biggest chance the wager has to profit lies with a weaker-than-forecast print on the September consumer price index, set for release […]


Global Stocks Hit New Record High, Dollar Mixed After Dovish Fed

In a trend observed every day this week, S&P futures are slightly in the red ahead of a post-open ramp with the VIX rising to 9.91, as Asian shares climb, European stocks are little changed. WTI crude pares recent gains, slipping below $51 after API showed an unexpected crude build. Earnings season launches with bank […]


I Know What the Economy Did Last Summer Part 2: The Real Estate Rollover

The following article by David Haggith was published on The Great Recession Blog: In fact, I knew what the economy did last summer before summer even began. Since the beginning of the year, I have been writing that it appeared housing was reaching a new bubblicious peak and that the real estate market was getting ready to roll […]


Hurricane Harvey Surge-Nado: Auto SAAR Soars To 30-Year High On Hurricane Replacements

Last month, when we reported auto sales data, we noted that this month would be all about replacement demand from Hurricane Harvey and thus largely irrelavant.  Fast forward 30 days and that appears to be exactly what has happened as annualized auto sales for the month of September suddenly surged to a 30-year high of […]


Global Stocks Hit Fresh Record High As Dollar Rally Fizzles

It’s deja vu all over again. In a repeat of yesterday’s session, where US equities and the dollar levitated in a one-way trade, Tuesday’s muted session – where in addition to closed China and South Korean markets, Germany’s Dax is also shut for holiday – has seen early dollar and European equity strength, while the […]


Wholesale Inventories Surge As Plant-Shuttering-Automakers ‘Stock Up’

Wholesale Inventories jumped 1.0% MoM in August, the fourth consecutive build in inventories in a row and the fastest monthly build since Nov 2016. This is the fastest annual growth rate for inventories since June 2015 as it appears producers embrace the idea that ‘if they build it, they will come’. Perhaps most notably, motor […]


Porsche And Mercedes Plot Musk Offensive With “Anything Tesla Can Do, We Can Do Better” Strategy

Tesla you have a problem, well several actually. But, before we get into all the competition that is about to flood your market, lets take a look at some basic math surrounding your valuation.  Ford currently generates roughly $1,800 of EBITDA per vehicle and trades at a total enterprise value of $35 billion, roughly 3x […]


Jim Rickards Warns “QT1 Will Lead To QE4”

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning, There are only three members of the Board of Governors who matter: Janet Yellen, Stan Fischer and Lael Brainard. There is only one Regional Reserve Bank President who matters: Bill Dudley of New York. Yellen, Fischer, Brainard and Dudley are the “Big Four.” They are the only […]


August Industrial Production Crashes Most Since May 2009 – Harvey Scapegoated

Amid a collapse in US auto sales (and slumping retail sales), August Industrial Production collapsed 0.9% MoM. This is the biggest monthly drop since May 2009! Industrial production declined 0.9 percent in August following six consecutive monthly gains.   Annual IP growth also staggered to 6 month lows.. The Fed has its excuse for the […]


Retail Sales Tumble In August – Worst Since Jan 2016 As Online Sales Slump

Following July's exuberant bounce back in retail sales (due to auto sales spike, despite auto manufacturers reporting a collapse in sales?), August Retail sales tumbled 0.2% MoM (just as we warned) and July's surprise gains were cut in half due to revisions. Retail sales growth has not been worse than this since January 2016, as […]


“Yesterday Was A Once-In-A-Decade Sort Of Day For The S&P 500”

Authored by Peter Tchir via Brean Capital, I wish it was Sunday‘Cause that’s my fun dayIt’s just another melt-up Monday The S&P 500 has rallied 1% or more four times this year – three of those have been on Mondays (4 out of the 7 largest upside moves this year in the S&P 500 have […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: BOE, SNB, Inflation And Retail Sales

In a somewhat quieter week for economic news, this week’s focus is on BoE and SNB policy meetings as well as on inflation releases in US, UK, China and others. Other releases of note include retail sales in the US, UK and China along with industrial production in US, Eurozone & China. Key events: Tuesday: […]


China Warns Trump: “We Will Back North Korea If The US Strikes First”

All day Saturday, South Korea braced for a possible new missile test by North Korea as the provocative northern neighbor marked its founding anniversary, just days after its sixth and largest nuclear test rattled global financial markets and further escalated tensions in the region. Throughout the week, South Korean officials warned the North could launch […]