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Is the Bond Market About to Call the Fed’s Inflationary Bluff?

Perhaps the single biggest development this year, as far as the markets were concerned, was the Fed admitting on the record that it has no idea what is going on with inflation. This represents a kind of endgame for the Fed. Since the early ‘80s, the Fed has been actively understating inflation via a variety […]


European, Asian Stocks Slide But US Futures Rebound As Tax Deal Fears Ease

U.S. equity index futures point to a higher open, having rebounded some 10 points off session lows with the VIX stuck on the edge between single and double digits, while European and Asian shares decline as investors assess central banks’ shift toward tighter monetary policy and concern over tax overhaul ahead of final plan.  It […]


US Futures Hit New All Time High Following Asian Shares Higher; European Stocks, Dollar Mixed

U.S. equity index futures pointed to early gains and fresh record highs, following Asian markets higher, as European shares were mixed and oil was little changed, although it is unclear if anyone noticed with bitcoin stealing the spotlight, after futures of the cryptocurrency began trading on Cboe Global Markets. In early trading, European stocks struggled […]


Axel Merk’s 2018 Outlook: “What Can Possibly Go Wrong?”

Authored by Axel Merk via MerkInvestments.com, With the stock market and Bitcoin reaching all-time highs, what can possibly go wrong? In offering my thoughts on 2018, I see my role in reminding investors to stress test their portfolios. Is your portfolio built of straw, sticks or brick? First, let me allege many investors have portfolios […]


Tax Deal Sends US Futures Soaring To New All Time High; Dollar, Yields, Global Stocks Follow

The dollar jumped the most in two weeks, pushing Treasury yields as much as 6bps higher (before easing back) with US equity indexes primed for a another record-setting day after Senate Republicans approved a reduction in the corporate tax rate as part of a sweeping overhaul, giving a boost to President Donald Trump’s stimulus plans. […]


Q4 GDP Shocker – Wholesale Inventories Unexpectedly Plunge In October

Against expectations of a 0.4% MoM rise – supporting continued growth in GDP into the fourth quarter – October saw a 0.4% plunge in wholesale inventories. After five straight months of building inventories, October saw a big GDP-stunting slump… The biggest drop was in Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers which saw a 1% drop in […]


What German Political Turmoil? Global Markets BTFD, Don’t Look Back

US index futures are unchanged, having recovered virtually all overnight session losses alongside the EURUSD following Merkel’s failure to form a government, while European shares rise despite Angela Merkel’s failure to form a new government. In the span of just hours, the goalseeked “hot take” consensus was that Germany’s collapsed coalition talks aren’t expected be […]


Fed Officials Push Radical Change In Monetary Policy As Powell Takes Over

Oh no…with the Federal Reserve in a state of flux as one Chairman prepares to step down and another (shock horror, who is not an economist) takes over, some of his colleagues who think they’ve found the “Holy Grail” of monetary policy are agitating for change. And, dare we say it, hoping it will raise […]


Futures Jump, Global Stocks Rebound From Longest Losing Streak Of The Year

After five consecutive daily losses on the MSCI world stock index and seven straight falls in Europe, there was finally a bounce, as investors returned to global equity markets in an optimistic mood on Thursday, sending US futures higher after several days of losses as global stocks rebounded following a Chinese commodity-driven rout.  The House […]


Key Events In The Coming Week: Taxes, Inflation, Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda And Brexit

This week’s economic calendar features several key data releases and Fedspeak. The main data release in US include: CPI inflation, retail sales, industrial production, housing data and monthly budget statement. We also get the latest GDP and CPI reading across the Euro Area; the employment report in the UK and AU, Japan GDP, China IP, […]


From “BTFD” To “Sell The Rip”: Global Stocks Slide, Nikkei Tumbles, Pound Plunges

S&P futures gave up early gains and were trading down -0.2%, as Donald Trump completes his first Asian tour and as pressure mounts on U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May, sending the pound plunging. European stocks fell, tracking many Asian shares as the Nikkei plunge accelerated. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 fell as much as 0.4%, […]


Global Stocks Drift Lower As US Futures Rebound From Overnight Scare, Oil At 2 Year Highs

Following an early shaky start, which saw the Hang Seng tumble as much as 1.6% driven by weakness in financials and real estate names following the latest warning by PBOC governor Zhou about “sudden, complex, hidden, contagious, hazardous” risks In markets and a decline in local real estate prices, and pressure global risk, US equity […]


Traders On Hold As “Super Thursday” Looms

Yesterday’s brief late night dip in ES has been promptly bought with US equity futures fractionally lower, Asian shares inching higher on Thursday and Europe unchanged ahead of today’s Super Thursday, where we get the Republican tax bill revealed shortly before noon, the BoE’s rate hike announcement, and Trump appointing Jay Powell as the next […]


Atlanta Fed Now Sees Q4 GDP At Blistering 4.5%

True to form, the Atlanta Fed – which has a habit of overshooting massively at the start of the quarter based on optimistic estimates only to ease sharply lower on its GDP “nowcast” as the “hard” data comes in – has unveiled its latest Q4 GDP estimate , which the regional Fed expects to print […]


Key Events In The Coming Very Busy Week

With a full slate of central bank meetings, data (including payrolls Friday) and earnings next week there’s a little bit for everyone. On Thursday, according to Politico, we will also know who the next Fed Chair is as well as get a first look at a version of the House tax bill in the US, […]