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Bank Of America: “This Is A Sign Of Irrational Exuberance”

Two weeks ago, when discussing a recent Albert Edwards piece, we said that the word that has come to define the new normal better than all others, is “paradox“, as in nothing makes sense, or rather everything makes sense if one only flips logic and reason 180 degrees. A “paradox” was on full display in […]


Albert Edwards: “Clients No Longer Care About Overvaluation; They Are Concerned About Triggers And Timing”

“How do you know when an asset price rise has turned into a bubble?” That’s the rhetorical question Albert Edwards leads his today’s Global Strategy Weekly note, and responds that in the non- virtual world, valuation is often a good starting point. “A bubble can also be identified by the steepness and persistence of any […]


SocGen Thinks Emerging Markets Are Breaking Down: Here’s Why

With Goldman Sachs publishing at least one, and in most cases two or more weekly reports urging its clients to keep pouring capital into emerging market assets, whether equities, bonds or FX, it is no surprise that Emerging Markets remain the big winners in 2017, up 10% points more than developed this year. However, as […]


Hartnett: Every Time Chinese Yields Hit 4%, A Crash Happens

In his latest flow show report, BofA’s Michael Hartnett finds that while inflows into markets in the past week continued, with $3.1bn going into stocks – of which $13.7bn went into ETFs, and $10.6bn was redeemed from active managers, $1.2bn into bond and $0.3bn into gold (unfortunately EPFR doesn’t track inflows into bitcoin yet), although […]


Albert Edwards: “Here’s Why The Current Situation Is Even Worse Than The 2008 Crisis”

Back in May, we first reported that Goldman became the first bank to dare to ask if the Fed has lost control of the market, if in slightly more polite terms of course. This is how Jan Hatzius phrased it: “Despite two rate hikes and indications of impending balance sheet runoff, financial conditions have continued to […]


Albert Edwards On The Selloff: “Comparisons With October 1987 Are Entirely Justified”

Last week, when equities were still blissfully hitting daily record highs, we showed the one “chart that everyone is talking about“, or if they weren’t they soon would be: the sharp, sudden disconnect between the junk bond and stock market … … a disconnect which – as we showed at the time – was last […]


Jail, Drugs And Video Games: Why Millennial Men Are Disappearing From The Labor Force

Last week, Goldman Sachs pointed out a very disturbing trend in the US labor market: where the participation rate for women in the prime age group of 25-54 have seen a dramatic rebound in the past 2 years, such a move has been completeloy missing when it comes to their peer male workers. As Goldman’s […]


Morgan Stanley: “If Central Banks Push Back, Asset Prices Face A Severe Challenge”

As increasingly more analysts and Fed-watchers have suggested in recent months, the one catalyst that could send the market into a tailspin is for the Fed to get what it has so long wanted: a sudden spike in inflation. From Albert Edwards (who looks at record U.S. vacation plans as an ominous sign of rising […]


A Record Number Of Americans Are Taking Vacations: Why That Is Bad News For The Market

Having identified virtually every single asset bubble of the current cycle (as well as a few extra), SocGen’s cranky strategist Albert Edwards has found yet another place where there is irrational exuberance: vacations, and ever the optimist, Edwards has a message for Americans: enjoy it while you can, because it won’t last.  In a note […]


“The Nightmare Scenario” Revisited: Albert Edwards Lays Out The Next “Black Monday”

Is it the onset of a recession or the fear of a recession that causes a crash? That is what SocGen’s bear (or, as he calls himself this time, wolf) Albert Edwards contemplated on the 30th anniversary of Black Monday, before reaching the conclusion that it’s the latter. Having taken several weeks off from publishing […]


Is Kevin Warsh The Ultimate Chicken-Hawk? (And Why Gold $1275 Will Hold)

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist, The current front-runner for the next Fed Chair is Kevin Warsh. He seems to have all the prerequisites that Trump idolizes. He’s connected. He’s not an academic. He has conservative leanings. But most important, he’s rich. I mean really rich. You see, Kevin married the granddaughter of […]


Albert Edwards: “Citizen Rage” Will Soon Be Directed At “Schizophrenic” Central Banks

Perhaps having grown tired of fighting windmills, it was several weeks since Albert Edwards’ latest rant against central banks. However, we were confident that recent developments out of the Fed and BOE were sure to stir the bearish strategist out of hibernation, and he did not disappoint, lashing out this morning with his latest scathing […]


“I Was Wrong”: Albert Edwards Finds Something That Has Never Happened Before

At the start of the year, we were surprised when SocGen’s Albert “Ice Age” Edwards, the biggest perma-deflationist on Wall Street, flipped his outlook on the US economy, and said he now expected a fast spike in inflation driven by wage growth, which in turn would prompt an even more accelerated tightening cycle by the […]