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Citi’s “What If?” Scenarios: Part 2

Yesterday we published the first set of 7 “What If” scenarios that didn’t make it into the Citi Credit team’s (already rather gloomy) year-ahead forecast. Because while Citi’s “base case” was clearly bearish (our summary can be found here), what was left unsaid was even more unsettling, if not troubling. As the bank’s credit team […]


Global Stocks Roar To Record Highs As Tax Reform Is “Priced In” All Over Again

Global stocks and US equity futures roared upward to new record highs to start the second-to-last week of the year, boosted by optimism over a Republican agreement on the shape of U.S. tax cuts aimed at lifting growth; incidentally this is the 6th consecutive day that the “tax bill” has been priced in by the […]


Brexit Moves To Phase 2 – Sterling Slides As EU Warns Talks Will Be Far More Testing

Following the humiliation of losing the House of Commons vote on Friday, in which MP’s took the final say on the Brexit deal from the executive, UK Prime Minister was in Brussels as EU leaders gave approval for Brexit talks to move to phase 2. At a dinner last night, she was applauded by leaders […]


Theresa May Humiliated As Tory Rebellion Leads To Key Brexit Vote Loss

Prime Minister Theresa May suffered a humiliating defeat for her key Brexit law on Wednesday after pro-European members of her own party openly defied her orders in a vote in Parliament. The vote in the UK Parliament was described as being “knife-edge” with the BBC’s chief political correspondent, Norman Smith, called it a “Big Bananas […]


Trader: UK Does Brexit Best When It Does Nothing At All

From the latest Macro View by current Bloomberg macro commentator and former Lehman trader, Mark Cudmore U.K. Does Brexit Best When It Does Nothing At All: Macro View With apologies to my compatriot Ronan Keating, there’s a non-negligible and rising probability that Brexit doesn’t happen. Ultimately that would be a positive for U.K. assets. An […]


US Futures Hit New All Time High Following Asian Shares Higher; European Stocks, Dollar Mixed

U.S. equity index futures pointed to early gains and fresh record highs, following Asian markets higher, as European shares were mixed and oil was little changed, although it is unclear if anyone noticed with bitcoin stealing the spotlight, after futures of the cryptocurrency began trading on Cboe Global Markets. In early trading, European stocks struggled […]


UK And EU Reach Agreement Taking Brexit Talks To “Phase 2” As Irish Border Questions Linger

Early on Friday morning, the EU and UK negotiated a deal allowing Brexit negotiations to move on to the "Phase 2", which will establish their future trading relationship. The European Commission said it recommends to the European Council to conclude that sufficient progress has been made in the first phase of the Article 50 negotiations […]


Asian Market Rout Goes Global On Tech, Tax And Government Shutdown Tremors

A selloff which started in Asia, driven by renewed liquidation of Chinese and Hong Kong tech stocks and accelerated by weaker metal prices which pushed the Shanghai Composite below a key support and to 4 month lows… … which sent the Nikkei to its worst day since March and the second worst day of the […]


UK Banks Can Withstand “Disorderly Brexit” But Need Additional £6BN; $35 Trillion In Derivatives Affected

For the first time since it (belatedly) began conducting stress tests in 2014, none of the UK’s major banks need to raise additional capital. More importantly, the Bank of England and the system could withstand a disorderly Brexit. As Bloomberg recaps, "the stress-test scenario therefore encompasses a wide range of U.K. macroeconomic risks that could […]


Brexit Budget – Grim Outlook As UK Economy Downgraded

Brexit budget – Grim outlook as UK economic forecasts downgrade – UK Chancellor uses housing market policy as smoke-screen for deteriorating economy– UK budget matters more than ever due to BREXIT risks– Policy on stamp duty will fail to aid worsening housing market– Real GDP expected to grow by just 1.5%, 40% less than projections 2 […]


Ignore Merkel And Brexit: According To Bill Blain, A New Threat Can Bring Europe Crashing Down

Blain’s Morning Porridge, Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners Europe is like a 4D game of Jenga, and Germany is a very wobbly block – as are the banks Europe is an enormous 4 dimensional game of Jenga.  At the moment there are far too many blocks in play. Some of them are likely […]


UK Cabinet Poised To Increase Brexit Divorce Payment By Another 20 Billion Euros

Theresa’s May’s government is poised to concede an improved Brexit settlement offer to gain EU approval to move the negotiations on to the next stage. May reportedly has the backing of senior ministers ahead of a critical cabinet meeting on Monday afternoon. The list of senior ministers is thought to include chancellor, Philip Hammond, Brexit […]


What German Political Turmoil? Global Markets BTFD, Don’t Look Back

US index futures are unchanged, having recovered virtually all overnight session losses alongside the EURUSD following Merkel’s failure to form a government, while European shares rise despite Angela Merkel’s failure to form a new government. In the span of just hours, the goalseeked “hot take” consensus was that Germany’s collapsed coalition talks aren’t expected be […]


Keep Calm & Carry On

Authored by 720Global's Michael Liebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, “Before long, we will all begin to find out the extent to which Brexit is a gentle stroll along a smooth path to a land of cake and consumption.” – Mark Carney, Bank of England Governor In 1939, the British Government, through the Ministry of Information, produced a […]


Frontrunning: November 15

GOP Seeks to Derail Moore, Salvage Senate Seat (WSJ) Army takes control in Zimbabwe (Reuters) Senate Tax Plan Guts Obamacare, Sunsets Many Middle-Class Cuts (BBG) Senate Republicans tie tax plan to repeal of key Obamacare mandate (Reuters) Trump’s Campaign Foreign Policy Team Under Mueller’s Microscope (BBG) Ryan Says Future Congresses Will Preserve Tax Bill’s Temporary […]