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In An Unexpected Outcome, Trump Tax Reform Blew Up The Treasury Market

Over the past week we have shown on several occasions that there once again appears to be a sharp, sudden dollar-funding liquidity strain in global markets, manifesting itself in a dramatic widening in FX basis swaps, which – in this particular case – has flowed through in the forward discount for USDJPY spiking from around […]


Yield Curve Collapses To 10 Year Lows, Stocks Stumble Amid “Unprecedented” Bullish Sentiment

Bonds and Bullion are bid and the yield curve crashed as the Santa Claus rally fails to appear for a second day…   Gold's gains are S&P's losses as the two converge for the month of December…   For the second day in a row, stocks went nowhere despite the promise of the Santa Claus […]


In An Unexpected Outcome, Trump Tax Reform Just Blew Up The Treasury Market

Over the past week we have shown on several occasions that there once again appears to be a sharp, sudden dollar-funding liquidity strain in global markets, manifesting itself in a dramatic widening in FX basis swaps, which – in this particular case – has flowed through in the forward discount for USDJPY spiking from around […]


Global Bond Rout Eases As Nervous Traders Watch For “Selling On The Tax News”, Catalan Vote

U.S. equity futures are little changed with the GOP Tax Plan now a done deal and no more daily “pricing in” of tax reform possible, as traders nerviously look to see if others will now be “selling the news”, a preview of which we got yesterday when US equity indexes closed red across the board […]


Dow 25,000 In Sight As Tax Cuts Are “Priced In” One Last Time

Dow futures are up some 80 points this morning after early on Wednesday morning the Senate passed the Tax Reform bill in a party-line vote, and is now set to become law after a follow-up vote in the House and Trump’s signature some time on Wednesday afternoon. The good news is that the biggest political […]


Tax Deal Sends US Futures Soaring To New All Time High; Dollar, Yields, Global Stocks Follow

The dollar jumped the most in two weeks, pushing Treasury yields as much as 6bps higher (before easing back) with US equity indexes primed for a another record-setting day after Senate Republicans approved a reduction in the corporate tax rate as part of a sweeping overhaul, giving a boost to President Donald Trump’s stimulus plans. […]


Ugly, Tailing 7 Year Auction Spooks Market As Foreign Buyers Flee

After one poor and one mediocre auction, today’s sale of $28 billion in 7 year paper was a fiasco, stopping at 2.23%, a massive 1.7bps tail to the 2.213% When Issued, if below last month’s 2.28% courtesy of the ongoing yield curve flattening which increasingly include the belly of the curve. The internals were just […]


More Evidence BoJ Desperate To Steepen Yield Curve

Two days ago, we highlighted how Bank of Japan officials have been briefing Reuters about reducing its monetary stimulus earlier than markets had been expecting – around 1Q 2018 rather than later in the year. In particular, the yield curve control (YCC) is likely to be eased from the current target of zero percent for […]


Dollar Dives To 6-Week Lows As Fed Fears Market ‘Partying Like Its 1999’

1999-like parties are breaking out everywhere across financial markets… First things first, US Financials Conditions are partying like its way easier than 1999…   The Philly Semiconductor index is partying like its 1999…   But what happens next? Meltup time?   S&P 500 Valuations are partying like its 1999… The spread between German and US […]


“This Looks More Frightening”: Global Stock, Bond Selloff Accelerates Amid Risk-Parity Rumblings

Yesterday’s Japan flash-crash inspired selling continues for a second day, with global equities – and bonds – sliding early Friday on concerns U.S. tax reform – and corporate tax cuts – will be delayed after Senate Republicans unveiled a plan that differed significantly from the House of Representatives’ version. After suffering their biggest plunge in […]


A Record Number Of Americans Are Taking Vacations: Why That Is Bad News For The Market

Having identified virtually every single asset bubble of the current cycle (as well as a few extra), SocGen’s cranky strategist Albert Edwards has found yet another place where there is irrational exuberance: vacations, and ever the optimist, Edwards has a message for Americans: enjoy it while you can, because it won’t last.  In a note […]


5s30s Curve Collapses To Flattest Since November 2007

Ignoring the bullish ADP report, the yield curve, and especially the 5s30s has collapsed, bear flattening to 82.8bps, the lowest level since November 2007. The long end leads the gains across the curve, with 30Y yields richer by 1.7bp on the day, breaching 2.86% for first time since Oct. 20; while 5Y yields are cheaper […]


“The Nightmare Scenario” Revisited: Albert Edwards Lays Out The Next “Black Monday”

Is it the onset of a recession or the fear of a recession that causes a crash? That is what SocGen’s bear (or, as he calls himself this time, wolf) Albert Edwards contemplated on the 30th anniversary of Black Monday, before reaching the conclusion that it’s the latter. Having taken several weeks off from publishing […]


Bond Yields Break Out Around The World As Japan’s Record Stock Rally Ends

S&P futures are fractionally in the red while traders await President Trump’s pick for Fed chair and more clues on the fate of tax reform; Asian stocks slide, European shares are little changed ahead of tomorrow’s ECB tapering announcement as US 10Y yields finally break out of their multi-month range below 2.40%…   … pushing […]


Spanish Stocks Tumble On Growing Catalan Crisis; Dollar Weakens As China Jumps

While U.S. equity futures were little changed in a rerun of every other morning this month ahead of a diagonal ramp that closes the S&P at daily all time highs, things were more volatile elsewhere with the dollar sliding as investors weighed the possibility that current Fed Governor Jerome Powell, seen widely as far more […]