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The Treasury Yield Curve Is Crashing Most Since Brexit

Remember the post-tax-reform, pre-Christmas spike in yields and the yield curve? Yeah, that's all over now!!!! Treasury yields are down 4 days in a row with a major collapse occurring today as the long-end plunges over 8bps – the most in 3 months. The 2s30s yield curve is down over 8bps – the biggest-single-day flattening […]


Citi: ‘What If?…”

One month ago, Citi’s credit team laid out its outlook for the coming year in what – in our opinion – was one of the gloomiest reports for the coming year, and included the following fascinating revelation according to which central bankers appears to have lost control: “That seems to be a growing fear among […]


Credit, Crypto, & The Yield Curve Crumble As Stocks See Longest ‘Dipless’ Streak In 58 Years

As the yield curve rolls over again and credit crumbles, stocks just wanna go higher because… well that's what stocks do… Small Caps were squeezed higher once again led by Financials and Energy stocks (Utes weakest) – stocks were weak again into the close… (Trannies ramped to unch at the close) – weakness started around […]


Are Bonds Really On The Run? Why One Trader Is Skeptical

Yesterday we observed the biggest 2-day steepening in the 2s30s yield curve since the Trump election, following a confluence of events which we discussed in this post, and which resulted in a generous payday for at least one rates trader. So has the long-awaited moment of a long-end selloff arrived? Or, as SocGen’s FX strategist, […]


Someone Just Made $60 Million Betting That The Crowd Is Wrong

Over the weekend we warned that just as everyone was convinced that the yield curve can only flatten from here, and was positioned massively on the long side of the 30Y future, the opposite was about to happen, and in a tweet highlighting the record net spec long positioning in 30Y futures, we said “here […]


Taxphoria Sparks Stock-Buying Panic – Dow Does Something It Has Never Ever Done Before

This…   The Dow closed at its 70th record high of the year… it has never done that before in its 100-year-plus history.   Additionally, S&P is most overbought (weekly RSI) since 1958…   There have been no down months since Trump elected and 2017 is shaping up to be a 'Perfect Year' This would […]


Stocks, Yield Curve Slammed After China Hike, Draghi Taper, & Tax Tumult

Did Senators Lee and Rubio (and Hatch) just go full "Leeroy Jenkins"?   A surprise China rate hike (and disappointing retail sales) sparked weakness in Chinese stocks…   Mario Draghi managed to talk the Euro and Bund yields lower (despite attemptting to raise inflation forecasts)…   Since the FOMC meeting, Bonds and Bullion are well […]


Tech Stocks Jump But Banks, Bond Yields, & Black Gold Dump

Tech stocks bounced today (perhaps on AMT chatter) sparking a chorus of confirmation-bias-based commentary that the bull is back… but we suspect that parrot is still dead…   Ugly night in Asian equities but it appears The National Team stepped in during the afternoon to save the world…   "It ain't cheap…"   Small Caps […]


The Yield Curve Just Keeps Collapsing…

"probably nothing…" The Treasury yield curve continues to plumb new cycle lows with 2s30s now below 94bps and 5s30s testing below 60bps…   If the tax deal is so 'growthy' – why is the yield curve signaling degrowth? Who's right about growth? Bonds or Stocks? http://WarMachines.com


McCain Mania Sends Dow Soaring To Record Highs As Yield Curve Collapse Continues

The longest short-squeeze streak in history continues…   John McCain's "Yes" at 1051ET seems to have been the catalyst that extended overnight gains into melt-up mania… (Small Cap smanaged to scramble back green on the day as Trannies rose 2%)   But the Nasdaq remains red on the week…   Futures show the crazy moves […]


Stocks Sink But Bitcoin Bursts To Record Highs On Cyber Monday

Whatever you do – remember "all is well"   Dow ended higher (with MMM and HD the biggest drivers) as Trannies, Small Caps (ugly into the close), and the Nasdaq red with S&P clinging to unchanged…until the very last minute… NOTE – this is Nasdaq's first down day in the last five – and that […]


Morgan Stanley: “If Central Banks Push Back, Asset Prices Face A Severe Challenge”

As increasingly more analysts and Fed-watchers have suggested in recent months, the one catalyst that could send the market into a tailspin is for the Fed to get what it has so long wanted: a sudden spike in inflation. From Albert Edwards (who looks at record U.S. vacation plans as an ominous sign of rising […]


Stocks Shrug At Trump Tax Plan As VIX Collapses To Record Low

The Rick Astley Market will never let you down…   It's Payrolls Friday – so stocks rallied!!   S&P, Dow up for the 8th straight week (longest streak since Nov 2013), Nasdaq 6th straight weekly gains, but Small Caps ended the week lower (for the 2nd week in a row) with the worst week in […]


“Both Cannot Be Right” – The Yield Curve’s Ominous Message: Something Is Very Broken

Two weeks ago, Deutsche Bank’s credit analyst Aleksandar Kocic explained that with the yield curve becoming increasingly flatter, the Fed has roughly two more rate hikes left before it loses control as the curve first flattens completely and eventually inverts, a precursor to virtually every historical recession. As the DB strategist explained, given where long […]


Techs Wrecked, Financials Falter As Korean Threats Spark Gold Gains

Well that all escalated rather quickly… Brent spiking (Kurds and Korea), Gold spiking (Korea), AAPL tumble (weak orders), FANG bloodbath… large into small and growth into value. The day's broad activity was driven by North Korean headlines which sparked a bid for gold (and early anxiety over Europe after Germany's election)…   Gold regains the […]