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Citi: ‘What If?…”

One month ago, Citi’s credit team laid out its outlook for the coming year in what – in our opinion – was one of the gloomiest reports for the coming year, and included the following fascinating revelation according to which central bankers appears to have lost control: “That seems to be a growing fear among […]

Global Bond Rout Eases As Nervous Traders Watch For “Selling On The Tax News”, Catalan Vote

U.S. equity futures are little changed with the GOP Tax Plan now a done deal and no more daily “pricing in” of tax reform possible, as traders nerviously look to see if others will now be “selling the news”, a preview of which we got yesterday when US equity indexes closed red across the board […]

What The Yield Curve Says About The Timing Of The Next Recession

While most financial professionals would enjoy nothing more than to trade bitcoin all day long – after all it only goes up in the long run (for now), while bringing insane volatility with it – the reality for most is that they are confined to such boring, established legacy instruments as Treasurys, which rarely have […]

Bank of America: “We’ve Seen This Movie Before: It Ends With A Recession”

In a merciful transition from Wall Street’s endless daily discussions and more often than not- monologues – of why vol is record low, and why a financial cataclysm will ensue once vol finally surges, lately the main topic preoccupying financial strategists has been the yield curve’s ongoing collapse – with the 2s10s sliding and trading […]

UBS Unveils Its Top 5 Themes And 19 Trades For 2018

Coming in a little late to the game, UBS today released its top 5 themes and 19 trades for 2018. Not surprising from the bank whose base case S&P forecast is 2,900 one year from now (with potential upside to 3,200), and who just told CNBC that “valuations are still somewhat cheap”, the bank is […]

You Know It’s Late In The Cycle When The Yield Curve Starts Generating Headlines

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com, The yield curve is one of those indicators that most people have heard of but few can explain. In part this is because it’s usually a non-issue, only becoming important enough to argue about during the final year of long expansions. Like now: Yield curve flattening maintains relentless momentum […]

Morgan Stanley Expects A “Completely Flat” Yield Curve In 10 Months

Over the weekend, we presented an analysis by Citi looking at how long after the yield curve inverts do investors have before they should start worrying. As Citi’s Jeremy Hale noted, “sometimes inversion provides a timely signal for the economic cycle a la 2000, where Professor Curve predicted almost the ding-dong high in the SPX. […]

Stocks Sink But Bitcoin Bursts To Record Highs On Cyber Monday

Whatever you do – remember "all is well"   Dow ended higher (with MMM and HD the biggest drivers) as Trannies, Small Caps (ugly into the close), and the Nasdaq red with S&P clinging to unchanged…until the very last minute… NOTE – this is Nasdaq's first down day in the last five – and that […]

A Little-Known Indicator Sees VIX Soaring To 30

While not quite as damning as its 2018 credit forecast, Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist Michael Wilson released his 2018 equity outlook this morning, and unlike his last full year forecast which in retrospect was surprisingly accurate, is far more contained, if not outright pessimistic. Wilson himself is quick to remark on just how much […]

“When To Worry?”: How Long After The Curve Inverts Does The Recession Begin

The recent (bear) flattening of the US yield curve to levels not seen since before the GFC, a move which has only accelerated in recent weeks as the stock market hit all time highs, has prompted some to question the strength of the US economic cycle, and others to ask outright how long before the […]

Asian Stocks Smash Records; Dollar Slides As Crude Surges To July 2015 Highs

Global shares hit another record high on Wednesday, propelled higher by what increasingly more call (ir)rational exuberance, and investors’ unflagging enthusiasm for tech stocks. That said, S&P futures are unchanged the morning before Thanksgiving (at least before the market open ramp), as are European stocks (Stoxx 600 is flat), despite the euphoria in the Asian […]

Yield Curve Carnage Continues

The US Treasury yield curve collapse continued its unending path to inversion overnight with 2s10s plunging to sub-60bps and 5s30s hits a 65bps handle for the first time since Nov 2007.   2s10s has flattened for 3 days straight, 6 of the last 7 days, and 14 of the last 17 days to a 58bps […]

Bonds, Futures, Global Stocks All Rise, Boosted By “Germany’s Brexit Moment”; TSY Curve Collapse Continues

S&P 500 futures are higher, continuing on yesterday’s momentum, after European and Asian shares also rose alongside a rebound in oil, as the year-end performance chase appears to be accelerating. There were several different moving parts in a mixed European session, in which early Euro strength gave way to weakness… … which in turn pushed […]

What German Political Turmoil? Global Markets BTFD, Don’t Look Back

US index futures are unchanged, having recovered virtually all overnight session losses alongside the EURUSD following Merkel’s failure to form a government, while European shares rise despite Angela Merkel’s failure to form a new government. In the span of just hours, the goalseeked “hot take” consensus was that Germany’s collapsed coalition talks aren’t expected be […]

Gold Gains As Stocks Slide, Yield Curve Crashes, & Dollar Dumps

Economic Data continues to surprise to the upside (compared to what had been terrible expectations)…is this as good as it gets? But credit, the yield curve, and now stocks are not loving it…   Small Caps were the only major index green today…   The Dow and S&P 500- fell for the 2nd week in […]